I was trying to be more general in specifying decades, but you are absolutely right about the classical definitions of the generations. I also agree that much of the hype in the press about the impending talent shortage is exactly that: hype. It’s a lot like the Y2K scare. I don’t think it’s going to be nearly as bad as some people make it out to be.

However, I don’t agree with your comment on global sourcing for several reasons: (1) other countries are experiencing shrinking populations too; (2) a lot of knowledge work is simply not suited for remote work; and (3) native language fluency is still required, and being academically trained as a linguist, the language and cultural barriers are just too great for some types of work. That is not going to change anytime in this century.

With the increased automation of work, I can’t disagree with your comment about a potential talent excess either!

Again, thanks for your insightful comments!

First, the Baby Boom is classically defined as those born between 1946 and 1964, not from ‘40 – ‘60. It makes a difference. The fastest growth in new births took place from ‘56 – ‘61, by far. (Source: Dept of HHS, National Center for Health Statistics, http://www.dhhs.gov). Ten years from now, that ‘boom within the boom’ group will be aged 57 – 62. Few of them will be retired, even based on retirement ambitions of the past twenty years.

Second, the econo/socio/psycho-graphic trends affecting retirement all point toward lower retirement rates at later ages. Boomer’s are saying: “I need the money”; “I need the activity”; “I need to stay relevant”; “Sixty is the new forty”. I don’t know the upshot of these observations, but it clearly implies fewer that 50% of the boomer’s will be retired within the next ten years, and certainly not 75% of them!

Third, global sourcing has emerged as one of the talent management mega-trends of the decade, largely as a rational organizational response to spot talent shortages, in order to avoid bidding up of talent prices. In other words, large organizations especially, seem to be saying, “So what if there’s a talent shortage in the US or Western Europe? We’ll just send the work elsewhere.”

I wouldn’t be at all surprised that the predicted talent shortages end up turning into talent excess, with sustained downward pressure on real salaries. The end result could very well be greater generational conflict than we’ve ever seen before, as aging boomer’s seek to stay on the job to pay for an increasingly elusive retirement dream.